Odds To Win Region Ncaa Tournament
- Odds To Win Region Ncaa Tournament 2020
- Odds To Win Region Ncaa Tournament Bracket
- Odds To Win Region Ncaa Tournament Championship
- Odds To Win Region Ncaa Tournament 2019
Earning a top seed in the NCAA Tournament is a huge advantage. In fact, number one seeds are almost 4 times more likely to win the championship than the next-best seed. Going back to the start of the modern bracket era, we have used the results of each round in the tournament so far to calculate the odds of each seed making it to each round.
/ 2021 NCAA Tournament odds: Florida State, Oklahoma undervalued 2021 NCAA Tournament odds: Florida State, Oklahoma undervalued 75756A5E-120A-4932-810C-2FD980DB785E.
This should be of good use when filling out your bracket. Below you will find the probabilities for each seed to advance to that round based on historical win percentages. So, 85% of number three seeds make it to the second round, but just over 11% make the Final Four, or about one every 2 years.
- We take a look at some updated odds for the North Carolina Tar Heels to win the 2021 NCAA Tournament from Las Vegas. The 2019-20 college basketball season ended abruptly with the cancellation of.
- Over at Bovada, their most recent odds to win the 2021 NCAA Tournament have the Kentucky Wildcats tied with Gonzaga and Iowa for the second-best odds to win it all at +1100. Virginia is just ahead.
The final column is tabled “True Odds”. These would be the fair odds for each seed to win the NCAA Tournament based on historical results. In other words, these are the implied probabilities that one of the four teams at that seed wins the National Championship. There are many other factors that go into making truly expert bracket picks, but this is a good place to start, especially to guide you through later rounds.
Odds to Advance to Each Round of the Tourney by Bracket Seed
| Seed | 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Champ Game | Win Champ | True Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 99.3% | 85.7% | 69.3% | 40.7% | 24.3% | 15.7% | 62.9% |
| 2 | 94.3% | 63.6% | 45.7% | 20.7% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 14.3% |
| 3 | 85.0% | 52.9% | 25.7% | 12.1% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 11.4% |
| 4 | 79.3% | 47.1% | 15.0% | 9.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 5 | 64.3% | 33.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 62.9% | 30.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 7 | 60.7% | 19.3% | 7.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 8 | 48.6% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 9 | 51.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | 39.3% | 16.4% | 5.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | 37.1% | 15.7% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12 | 35.7% | 15.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | 20.7% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | 15.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | 5.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Tournament Win/Loss Statistics by Seeding
Odds To Win Region Ncaa Tournament 2020
While those numbers give us a broad look at the probabilities for teams at different positions in the tournament, it may also help to know the exact results for each seed. You’ll find the records and win percentages in every bracket since 1985 in the tables below. These differ from the table above in that they show how each team does in each round once they have reached it.
First Round
The opening slate is unsurprisingly the most predictable. At seeds 1-4 we can advance teams in our bracket without much worry of an upset. The only real surprise is that 12 seeds perform as well against 5 seeds as 11s do against 6 seeds. 2018 marked the first time in history a #1 upset a #16, kudos to you if you picked UMBC over Virginia! The odds are this won’t happen again for a long time. You are better off assuming all #1 seeds are going to advance past this round.
Odds To Win Region Ncaa Tournament Bracket
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 139 | 1 | 99% |
| 2 | 132 | 8 | 94% |
| 3 | 119 | 21 | 85% |
| 4 | 111 | 29 | 79% |
| 5 | 90 | 50 | 64% |
| 6 | 88 | 52 | 63% |
| 7 | 85 | 55 | 61% |
| 8 | 68 | 72 | 49% |
| 9 | 72 | 68 | 51% |
| 10 | 55 | 85 | 39% |
| 11 | 52 | 88 | 37% |
| 12 | 50 | 90 | 36% |
| 13 | 29 | 111 | 21% |
| 14 | 21 | 119 | 15% |
| 15 | 8 | 132 | 6% |
| 16 | 1 | 139 | 1% |
Second Round
Odds To Win Region Ncaa Tournament Championship
The second round is where you start to find a lot of variation versus what you would expect based strictly on seeding. Number nine seeds have been terrible in their second game, while ten seeds win their second round games over 40% of the time. Top ranked teams at this point in the tournament are still a safe bet with a #1 being upset only once every 3-4 years.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 120 | 19 | 86% |
| 2 | 89 | 43 | 67% |
| 3 | 74 | 45 | 62% |
| 4 | 66 | 45 | 59% |
| 5 | 47 | 43 | 52% |
| 6 | 42 | 46 | 48% |
| 7 | 27 | 58 | 32% |
| 8 | 13 | 55 | 19% |
| 9 | 7 | 65 | 10% |
| 10 | 23 | 32 | 42% |
| 11 | 22 | 30 | 42% |
| 12 | 21 | 29 | 42% |
| 13 | 6 | 23 | 21% |
| 14 | 2 | 19 | 10% |
| 15 | 1 | 7 | 13% |
| 16 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Sweet 16
The Sweet 16 is where the better ranked teams really start to settle in. If you are a 1-3 seed that has made it this far, chances are you are going to advance. One interesting note here is that 8 seeds that have made it this far are more likely to advance than 3-7 seed. The trick, of course, is picking which 8 seed is going to advance. A #8 has been in this situation in just 37% of the brackets in the last 35 years.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 97 | 23 | 81% |
| 2 | 64 | 25 | 72% |
| 3 | 36 | 38 | 49% |
| 4 | 21 | 45 | 32% |
| 5 | 9 | 38 | 19% |
| 6 | 14 | 28 | 33% |
| 7 | 10 | 17 | 37% |
| 8 | 8 | 5 | 62% |
| 9 | 4 | 3 | 57% |
| 10 | 8 | 15 | 35% |
| 11 | 8 | 14 | 36% |
| 12 | 1 | 20 | 5% |
| 13 | 0 | 6 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Elite 8
This round appears to be the biggest equalizer. Teams who reach this point in the tournament are obviously talented and have either had an easy bracket thus far or have overcome some obstacles. This makes the Elite 8 ripe for upsets.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57 | 40 | 59% |
| 2 | 29 | 35 | 45% |
| 3 | 17 | 19 | 47% |
| 4 | 13 | 8 | 62% |
| 5 | 7 | 2 | 78% |
| 6 | 3 | 11 | 21% |
| 7 | 3 | 7 | 30% |
| 8 | 5 | 3 | 63% |
| 9 | 1 | 3 | 25% |
| 10 | 1 | 7 | 13% |
| 11 | 4 | 4 | 50% |
| 12 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Final Four
Similar to the Elite 8, teams who make it this far, regardless of seed, are going to be a tough out. All this means is that if you select a non-number-one to make the Final Four, you shouldn’t feel obligated to pick them to lose at this point.
Odds To Win Region Ncaa Tournament 2019
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 23 | 60% |
| 2 | 13 | 16 | 45% |
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 65% |
| 4 | 3 | 10 | 23% |
| 5 | 3 | 4 | 43% |
| 6 | 2 | 1 | 67% |
| 7 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| 8 | 3 | 2 | 60% |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 11 | 0 | 4 | 0% |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Championship Game
No surprise here that #1s win the Championship more often than any other, especially considering seven championship games have featured two number one teams. No team seeded higher than 8th has reached the title game as of yet, but at some point one would have to assume a 9 or 10 can break through.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 12 | 65% |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 38% |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 36% |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| 5 | 0 | 3 | 0% |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 50% |
| 7 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| 8 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
© Jason Marcum - Sea of BlueNow that the NBA Draft deadline has passed, we have a more clear picture of what the 2020-21 college hoops season will look like.
Over at Bovada, their most recent odds to win the 2021 NCAA Tournament have the Kentucky Wildcats tied with Gonzaga and Iowa for the second-best odds to win it all at +1100. Virginia is just ahead at +900 for the top spot.
Personally, I can’t see Kentucky having odds this good without Olivier Sarr being eligible, so maybe the oddsmakers are guessing he will be, or maybe they have some sort of inside scoop.
If Sarr doesn’t play, then I’d imagine Kentucky is down around Duke at +1500, maybe even lower. Gonzaga and Virginia would definitely be ahead with the firepower they have coming back, and Baylor has a strong case to be higher as well.
As for who the Cats face next season, Kansas is currently the highest at +2000, and they’re the only team in the top 15 best odds, followed by Tennessee (+2500), Florida (+4000) and Louisville (+4000).
However, I think there’s a decent chance Kentucky faces either Texas Tech (+1800) or West Virginia (+2200) in the Big 12/SEC Challenge, so that should be another tough non-conference test.
Bovada odds to win 2021 NCAA Tournament
- Villanova +900
- Gonzaga +1100
- Iowa +1100
- Kentucky +1100
- Baylor +1200
- Virginia +1200
- Michigan +1400
- Duke +1500
- Creighton +1800
- Michigan St. +1800
- Texas Tech +1800
- Kansas +2000
- North Carolina +2000
- Wisconsin +2000
- Florida St. +2200
- West Virginia +2200
- Houston +2500
- Tennessee +2500
- Connecticut +2800
- Indiana +3000
- Oregon +3000
- San Diego State. +3000
- Illinois +3500
- Ohio St. +3500
- Florida +4000
- Louisville +4000
Elsewhere, the folks at BetOnline have also released new odds to win it all, and they’re not ‘quite’ as high on Kentucky as Bovada is. BetOnline has the Wildcats tied with Kansas for the sixth-best odds at 12-1. Virginia (10-1), Gonzaga (9-1), Baylor (8-1), Iowa (15-2) and Villanova (7-1) rounded out the top five.
Other SEC teams included are Tennessee (22-1), Florida (30-1), Auburn (40-1) and LSU (40-1).
BetOnline odds to win 2021 NCAA Tournament
- Villanova 7/1
- Iowa 15/2
- Baylor 8/1
- Gonzaga 9/1
- Virginia 10/1
- Kansas 12/1
- Kentucky 12/1
- Duke 14/1
- Illinois 16/1
- Michigan State 16/1
- West Virginia 16/1
- Wisconsin 16/1
- Creighton 18/1
- Florida State 18/1
- North Carolina 18/1
- San Diego State 20/1
- Tennessee 22/1
- Michigan 25/1
- Oregon 28/1
- Texas Tech 28/1
- Florida 30/1
- Ohio State 30/1
- UCLA 30/1
- Louisville 33/1
- Seton Hall 33/1
- Houston 35/1
- Arizona State 40/1
- Auburn 40/1
- Indiana 40/1
- LSU 40/1